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Project machinery industry: The four seasons spends demand get warm again after
From;    Author:Stand originally
Fixed assets invests too numerous and jumbled not very can accurate measure situation of project machine demand. What drive project machine to purchase directly is industry of estate, mining, capital construction 3 investment. The capital construction project related to project machine basically is road, railroad, city public transportation, irrigation works, waterborne, aviation, amount is about 1.3 trillion, 8 years increment is about 160 billion. Railroad investment is a the biggest to drive growth, be equivalent to irrigation works, city public transportation double what invest with road. Mining industry divides exploitation of oil natural gas to invest, other the investment amount of a few parts is in 300 billion the left and right sides, 8 years increment is in 120 billion the left and right sides. Integral growth is rapid, invest increment with coal the biggest. After estate investment deducts land to purchase cost, annual rental is 2 trillion the left and right sides, increment of 8 years is 590 billion. It is coastal that 3 areas increment contributes mid, northeast, inland, long triangle 1.6 times of two areas, broad inland province sustained growth of 8 years.

According to our hypothesis, increment of contribution of 3 kinds of big investment occupies next year estate, capital construction, mining to be than parting 53% , 35% , 13% , the total demand of project machine home that drive (contain an import) it is about 111.9 billion, add fast for - 9.9% . If the entrance is lost,grow 15-20% 9 years, of domestic manufacturer sale in domestic market fall it is 5.2-7.5% only.

9 years development of global bldg. market basically relies on the growth of burgeoning economy system, investment of burgeoning area bldg. is added fast will be 8 years 78.7% the left and right sides. Estimation China is overall the product exports add fast in 64.5% the left and right sides. In look for a long time, scope of area of area of middle east, hamster, Latin America is broad at Chinese market, want rising market to develop only successful, domestic product has enough growth space.

Occupy sale of more entire than calculating industry to grow 23% by 50% exit, by 25%-30% the left and right sides is occupied add than what calculate fast it is 8%-10.8% . Whole just can appear to enjoy growth below a few kinds of circumstances rarely only, and extent won't exceed 6% . The sale of main bibcock company is added fast should control in 12.5-15% .

Four quarters demand has sign of get warm again after a cold spell. In August, estate investment is added fast although have,glide, but mining industry and capital construction investment are added fast strong still. Investment of plan of new go into operation grows by negative become a full member, new go into operation and construction project number is added fast rebound considerably, annulus comparing is added fast be as high as 28.8% with 16.5% . Bldg. investment accumulative total is added fast also become a full member again, the sales volume of product of main project machine is added fast have pick up evidence. Although continue,cement crop adds fast whole fall after a rise, but the cement that has had 15 provinces is added fast begin to pick up. Although we think demand inverts,want when after estate policy is loosened, but fall in current policy and market background, the trend of demand get warm again after a cold spell can continue probably continuously, project machine is the right investment choice in rebounding. Choose a side, should consider to export increment contribution is larger, capital construction drives the breed of demand, proposal key chooses ability of Xu engineering course, couplet heavy division is mixed in 31 heavy industry.
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